Poker Lessons For Business Strategy

Six poker principles that sharpen strategy

Outcome Bias

Outcome bias causes people to judge decisions mainly by how they turned out, even when luck, uncertainty and hidden constraints played a major role in the result.

Law of Diminishing Returns

More input eventually yields less additional output

Law of Triviality

Familiar details attract more debate than consequential complexity

Miller's Law

People can hold only a limited amount of information in immediate memory, though the exact number is more nuanced than the popular rule suggests

Principal–Agent Problem

Delegation fails when incentives and information diverge

Law of Large Numbers

Bigger samples improve estimates, not explanations

Framing Effect

The framing effect shows that people can make different choices about the same underlying option depending on whether it is presented as a gain, a loss, a risk, or a form of safety.

KISS Principle

Simplicity beats sophistication when both solve the same problem

Winner's Curse

Winning can reveal a valuation error

Sunk-Cost Fallacy

Irrecoverable costs should not govern future choices

The Discipline of Letting Go

Why smart leaders know when to quit