Hindsight Bias
Hindsight bias causes people to see past events as more predictable after the fact than they really were when the decision had to be made.
Representativeness Heuristic
The representativeness heuristic causes people to judge probability by similarity to a familiar pattern, stereotype, or prototype rather than by underlying likelihood.
Framing Effect
The framing effect shows that people can make different choices about the same underlying option depending on whether it is presented as a gain, a loss, a risk, or a form of safety.
Overconfidence Effect
The overconfidence effect causes people to be more certain than the evidence justifies, especially about predictions, control and the likelihood that their plans will succeed.
Hiemstra Debiasing
A lethal flaw hides in high-stakes teams, twisting quick judgments into dangerous errors.