Optimism Bias
Optimism bias causes people and organizations to assign too much probability to favorable scenarios and too little to friction, loss, delay and failure.
Base-Rate Neglect
Base-rate neglect happens when vivid case details overwhelm the broader background probabilities that should anchor judgment.
Anchoring Effect
The anchoring effect causes early numbers and initial frames to shape later judgment disproportionately, even when the first figure is rough, arbitrary, or self-serving.
Overconfidence Effect
The overconfidence effect causes people to be more certain than the evidence justifies, especially about predictions, control and the likelihood that their plans will succeed.
