Authority Bias
Status can overpower judgment
Optimism Bias
Optimism bias causes people and organizations to assign too much probability to favorable scenarios and too little to friction, loss, delay and failure.
Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias causes people to favor evidence that supports what they already believe, making favored explanations feel increasingly certain without being properly tested.
Base-Rate Neglect
Base-rate neglect happens when vivid case details overwhelm the broader background probabilities that should anchor judgment.
Anchoring Effect
The anchoring effect causes early numbers and initial frames to shape later judgment disproportionately, even when the first figure is rough, arbitrary, or self-serving.
Survivorship Bias
Survivorship bias occurs when visible successes are treated as representative while the comparable failures that disappeared from view are ignored.
Planning Fallacy
The planning fallacy causes teams to treat the intended path of a project as if it were the most likely path, leading to underestimated timelines, budgets and risks.
Endowment Effect
The endowment effect causes leaders and teams to value what they already own more highly than comparable alternatives, which slows simplification, divestment and strategic renewal.
The Algorithm Advantage
Navigating the frontier of automated logic and human equity
Outcome Bias
Outcome bias causes people to judge decisions mainly by how they turned out, even when luck, uncertainty and hidden constraints played a major role in the result.
Selection Bias
Selection bias occurs when the cases included in an analysis differ systematically from the population the analyst actually wants to understand.